Match simulation

How a match is decided

A map is MR12: two halves of twelve rounds, sides switch at the break, first to 13 takes the map. Every round is an economy puzzle and a scripted tactic, weighted by your players’ role ratings, not a coin flip.

“It feels random”

Results are not RNG: the sim picks a winner from squad power, map strength, the Elo gap and team morale, then loads the round dice by ability.

MR12 · overtime · Bo1 / Bo3 / Bo5 · veto

The match structure

One map: MR12 Datamined constants
12–12 A tie triggers overtime: MR3 (3 rounds per side, first to 4). Tied overtimes repeat until one team is ahead by four.
The series
Bo1 1 map
A single decider: one map, one map veto, high variance. Common in group stages.
Bo3 up to 3
First to two maps. The standard playoff format; the veto shapes the whole series.
Bo5 up to 5
First to three. Reserved for grand finals: depth of map pool decides it.
Map veto FirstPick / FirstBan
  1. 1 Team A Bans its worst map
  2. 2 Team B Bans its worst map
  3. 3 Team A Picks a map to play
  4. 4 Team B Picks a map to play
  5. 5 Both Trim remaining maps
  6. 6 · Last map left is the decider

Each team carries a preferred first pick and first ban; the analyst’s pre-match report advises the order.

Objective, not just fragging

Winning a round

A round is won two or three ways depending on the side. The bomb is the axis: every tactic is built around planting on A or B, holding the plant, or retaking the site.

T Terrorists win by
  • Detonating the planted C4 (40s timer)
  • Eliminating all five CTs
CT Counter-Terrorists win by
  • Defusing the bomb (10s, or 5s with a kit)
  • Eliminating all five Ts
  • Running the round timer out with no plant
Buy states · loss bonus · rewards

The round economy

Money carries between rounds, so the buy you can afford drives the tactic you run. The five buy states are a hard enum; the dollar figures follow standard CS2 MR12 economy.

The five buy states Enum · datamined
Pistol The first round of each half: everyone on $800, pistols and light utility only.
Full Buy Rifle, armour and a full utility set. Where the scripted executes happen.
Semi Buy A partial buy: some rifles, some armour, thinner utility.
Force Buy Spend everything on a weak bank to steal a round or deny the enemy economy.
Eco Save the money, expect to lose the round, keep guns alive for next round.
Loss-bonus ladder $ = CS2 convention

Lose consecutive rounds and your bank floor climbs each time; a single round win resets it. This is what lets a beaten team re-buy.

Round & kill rewards $ = CS2 convention
Round win
$3,250
Bomb detonation (T)
$3,500
Plant (even on a loss)
+$800
Kill (most weapons)
$300
Kill with the AWP
$100
Money cap
$16,000

The AWP’s low kill reward is why an AWP-heavy round is an economic gamble.

The win-probability chain

Who wins the map

The auto-match win chance is a pipeline of datamined inputs, best read from the diagram below: staff quality raises map-practice %, which raises win probability.

Squad power Average role rating of the five starters
Map strength 0–100% familiarity for that specific map
ERS (Elo) The ladder gap turned into a probability
Morale & fitness Team-state modifiers on top
Win probability Rolled per map, then animated
Fact vs inference Win-chance inputs are datamined; the exact weights are not, since every scoring method is stubbed in the game files.
Per-player row

Reading the live sim

In Simulation Mode you watch the match top-down and call one tactic per round. Your only live levers are pause, speed and the tactic call; each player’s row reads like a broadcast HUD.

The live match simulation, showing each player row with kills, deaths, money, HP and weapon
Live sim
Kills column HP bar Player money IGL badge
Reading a player row T CT
Kills: the star column. More kills = higher round impact.
Deaths: the skull column. A dead player’s HP is gone for the round.
Money: the per-player bank that decides next round’s buy.
HP: the heart. Full at round start, whittled by damage.
Weapon & nades: the held gun and remaining utility icons.
IGL badge: flags the in-game leader in the row.

The same idea, drawn as a linked scoreboard: two real top-ranked rosters on a top-down, each marker tied to that player’s season rating, role and top stat.

Illustrative team positions on the Dust II top-down layout 23452345 17 magixxIGL IGL· Leadership 1320 donk Rifler· Rifle 2018 sh1ro AWPer· AWP 1916 tN1R Rifler· Rifle 1716 zont1x Rifler· Rifle 1814 karriganIGL IGL· Leadership 1918 kyousuke Rifler· Rifle 1820 m0NESY AWPer· AWP 2019 NiKo Rifler· Rifle 2016 TeSeS Support· Grenades 18
Team Spirit attack Falcons Esports defense

Illustrative positions: the game ships no in-match coordinates, so the ten spots are hand-placed. The ratings, roles and top stats are real season values from the player database.

K/D/A · HS% · DMG · MVP

Reading the post-map scoreboard

The post-map scoreboard with per-player K/D/A, headshot percent, damage and the round-by-round strip
Post-map scoreboard
Reading the scoreboard
Kills, Deaths, Assists: assists include flash assists.
Headshot %: headshots over kills; scaled by weapon and aim.
Damage / ADR: average damage per round, the truest fragging metric.
MVP: the map most-valuable-player marker.
Round strip: skull = the round was won by elimination.
Round strip: bomb = the round was won by detonation.
Round strip: defuse kit = the round was won by defuse.

The round-by-round strip runs between the teams: one cell per round, top block for half one and bottom block for half two, each tinted the winning side’s colour.